Clippers at a Crossroads: A Sunk-Cost Fallacy Tale

It might be time for the franchise to do something drastic.

The ‘Sunk-Cost Fallacy’ has a clear definition:

the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.

The LA Clippers are at that troublesome crossroads as we speak.

After acquiring Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2019 offseason, it was seen as the move that secured the franchise’s guarantee that Kawhi Leonard would sign. That came to be.

The Clippers gave up a war chest of assets to make it happen — young guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has blossomed into an All-NBA talent; Danilo Gallinari; four first-round picks (three from the Clippers, one from the Miami Heat); and three first-round pick swaps.

The Thunder have made use of two of the first-round picks so far, nabbing Tre Mann with a 2021 Miami first and Jalen Williams with a 2022 Clippers first. Both picks fell inside the Top 20, with Williams being selected No. 12 overall.

The picks, as far as the Clippers are concerned, are gone. You can’t go back in time and undo a trade no matter how much you think you might want to. You have to move on.

George has paid dividends for the Clippers. That much cannot be denied. George was the main reason the Clippers were able to make their first-ever Conference Finals berth back in 2021 as he lifted the team over the top-seeded Utah Jazz after Leonard suffered what was later learned to be a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.

No one can take that away from both him or the team. But George has had his downsides.

In the four years before George arrived in Los Angeles, the star swingman had played in 312 of his teams’ 328 games, a robust 95 percent. That is a mark of consistency and availability. However, it’s been anything but since he landed in the City of Angels.

Out of 308 possible games that George could have been active for, the 33-year-old has only been able to suit up for 189 of them — a brutal 61 percent. Kawhi Leonard, who mind you missed all of the 2021-22 season due to his recovery from ACL surgery, has only played 28 fewer games than George has.

It hasn’t been just one thing with George, either. It’s been a concoction of injury disappointment.

George missed the beginning of his first season with the Clippers due to recovering from shoulder surgery. He's entered the league's health and safety protocols at various times, including before a play-in game against the New Orleans Pelicans that the Clippers eventually lost and thus ended their season. George has also had ankle and foot injuries, bone edema in the second toe on his right foot that cost him several weeks, a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, hand issues, a knee injury that kept him out for the remainder of the 2022-23 regular season and all of the postseason, and also multiple hamstring strains that have crept up to rob him of games at a time. There was also the time George was scratched moments before tip-off due to a bout of dizziness after intaking too much caffeine.

When he’s been on the floor, George has been good. Better than good, as a matter of fact.

George has averaged 23.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game during his time with the Clippers. He’s shot 44.9 percent from the field and 39 percent on 7.8 three-point attempts per game.

The problem lies with availability first and mindset second.

George famously — or perhaps infamously — asserted that he’s the No. 2 to Kawhi Leonard’s No. 1.

“I'll publicly say, I'm the 2. Kawhi's the 1, I'm the 2,” George said in early October. “So that part we nipped in the bud. Like there's no ego when it comes to that.”

Later in October, Paul George iterated that he “enjoys doing everything” the team needs him to do before saying, “I enjoy being the glue guy.”

The Clippers didn’t give up all those first-round picks, pick swaps, and a future All-NBA talent for George to enjoy being a glue guy. They gave that up to get ‘the guy,’ not ‘a guy.’

But what’s done is done, and what might be done next is that the Clippers opt to pivot away and look to find something else that can be structured around Leonard as the team hopes to continue to compete as they also get set to move into their brand new arena before the 2024-25 season.

There’s no telling what George’s value on the open market is, but the Clippers appear to be ready to field calls to see what other teams might be willing to throw their way for a player who is set to possess a $48.8 million player option next offseason as they enter their Age-34 season.

This isn’t to say that the Clippers should tear the ship down to its roots. That isn’t doable. Not with the new arena looming. But retooling? Restructuring? That could be done. At the right price, of course.

The Clippers are in a tough spot, a spot that no team in the league wants to find themselves in. They’re strapped to an injured nucleus that is set to hit the free agent market as early as next offseason and possess zero draft capital to embrace a tanking-type alternative like the Washington Wizards have this offseason.

Moving off of Paul George would be tough. Extremely tough.

It might also be the team’s only way forward.