What Does Harden's Arrival Mean for Westbrook, Clippers?
The integration of a 10-time All-Star could force a 9-time All-Star into a tricky situation.
Conceivably, one does not trade for James Harden if one is entirely comfortable going forward with the status quo being what it is.
And while the LA Clippers might put on an outwardly brave face that signals everyone is content with what is now transpiring in Los Angeles, it’s not impossible to see a potential divergence taking place rather soon.
Harden’s arrival is just the initial blow to Russell Westbrook’s present role as a starter with the franchise. The next, and potentially more damaging blow, could come when Westbrook is, in all probability, asked to move to the bench within a few weeks’ time following this initial “10-to-15-game” trial period.
As good as Westbrook has been during his brief time with the Clippers, his perceived on-court shortcomings from a stylistic and tendency standpoint can take center stage more than the organization would likely prefer, and the acquisition of Harden was done, seemingly in part, to limit the risk associated with Westbrook, potentially with an eye towards late-game situations.
The plan has also been clear from the beginning of the offseason for the Clippers: Terance Mann is a starter. He can’t be one so long as Westbrook remains there. Therein lies the other hiccup. The Clippers’ best way to start games and their best way to finish games both probably exist sans Westbrook, which brings the overarching issue into play: What does it mean for Westbrook in the long run?
Even before Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks — a 111-97 defeat that saw the Clippers never look at all in rhythm which, to be fair, you would expect out of a team adding a player whose divisive archetype can upset even the most fluid of units — the pressure points were already starting to be felt as both national and regional analysts alike wondered just how Harden and Westbrook would work together as a team’s starting backcourt alongside Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.
↳THE HOUSTON EXPERIMENT↰
A lot has changed in the careers of Harden and Westbrook since they last teamed up in Houston as the co-stars in a five-out symphony that yielded blistering offensive success for each player and the Rockets as a whole.
Houston went 36-19 and outscored opponents by 5.6 points per 100 possessions during Harden and Westbrook’s 55 games together throughout the 2019-20 regular season.
But the biggest change for that Rockets team was a Feb. 5, 2020 trade that jettisoned starting center Clint Capela to the Atlanta Hawks which allowed the Rockets to embrace their preferred five-out style under visionary coach Mike D’Antoni and savior-cum-“liar” (Harden’s words, not mine) general manager Daryl Morey.
Following the deal, the Rockets went 9-5 in 14 games that Harden and Westbrook played together and outscored opponents by 6.9 points per 100 possessions with the duo on the floor, owning a 112.0 offensive rating in the process. In total, the Rockets went 12-10 in the 22 games after the trade.
In that 22-game stint, Harden averaged 31.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 6.7 rebounds on 46.5 percent from the field and 34.2 percent on 11.1 three-point attempts per game. Westbrook wasn't far behind, boasting 29.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 6.1 assists on 52.0 percent shooting overall and 36.8 percent on 2.5 three-point attempts per game. But the duo did have a bugaboo: turnovers. Westbrook (4.9) and Harden (4.5) alone combined for nearly 9.5 turnovers per game, and it put each squarely into the league’s top five following the Feb. 5 trade.
The difference between the Houston situation and the one going on now in downtown Los Angeles is that while, yes, Harden and Westbrook equally flourished with the Rockets in their experimental system, they never had to share the floor with another star-level player, a player that had made an All-Star game at all to that point, or even one that had ever been considered a lead ball-handler for one of their prior teams.
If the Rockets were a high-level sports car, Harden and Westbrook each had one hand on the wheel and one foot on the accelerator. They ran the whole show. It went as they did.
Westbrook led the way by averaging an eye-popping 22.9 field goal attempts per game following the Capela deal. Harden didn’t trail by much, hoisting up 19.1 per contest. But you’d have to adjust your eyes a bit as you looked down the ledger to find the next-closest person, which happened to be the duo of Eric Gordon and Robert Covington, who registered 10.4 and 10.3 attempts, respectively — 68.6 percent of Gordon and Covington’s attempts were three-pointers.
Harden and Westbrook took turns serving themselves and then others. It worked. Quite well, in fact. But it’s what the Rockets needed as they attempted to ease the off-ball stress of their two max contract guards and keep the team thriving. This Clippers team is not the same.
Not with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard already on the roster, just like they were a mere nine months ago when neither Harden nor Westbrook were part of the organization yet.
While Harden and Westbrook operated out of necessity in Houston, in Los Angeles they’ll have to embrace a more egalitarian style with a slant towards Leonard as the No. 1 and then the trickle-down effect from there.
The Clippers cannot afford, whether through sheer process or results, to let the former Houston duo seize control of the offense and render others as bystanders as they try to recreate what they enjoyed so much with the Rockets.
↳WESTBROOK’S HOMETOWN REVIVAL↰
The Clippers re-signed Westbrook this past offseason to a two-year deal worth $7.8 million, with the second year being a player option. Westbrook’s $3.8 million pseudo-expiring salary was 120 percent of the veteran minimum that he had signed for with the Clippers back in February after reaching a buyout agreement with the Utah Jazz following his trade from the Los Angeles Lakers.
Westbrook has had his positives with the Clippers, and anyone who tries to say otherwise is doing his tenure with the organization a great disservice.
The Clippers don’t win Game 1 of their 2022 first-round series against the Phoenix Suns without Westbrook who, despite his 3-for-19 shooting on the night, managed to contribute 11 rebounds (five offensive), eight assists, two steals, and three blocks, including the game-clinching rejection on Devin Booker with 10 seconds left.
It was one of the best all-around defensive outings of Westbrook’s illustrious career as he chased Booker and Kevin Durant off of multiple screens, repeatedly challenged with rearview contests, and supplied fantastic help-side defense with well-timed digs and stunts before jetting back out to contest shots with tremendous ferocity and precision.
Westbrook followed that up with games of 28, 30, and 37 points over the next three games while shooting 41 percent from the field throughout the series. The guard averaged 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in a series in which the Clippers were vastly more competitive than they should have been considering the injuries to Paul George, sidelined for the entire series after suffering a knee injury against the Oklahoma City Thunder in late March, and Kawhi Leonard, who didn't play after Game 2 due to a torn meniscus.
In his 27 regular season games with the Clippers, Westbrook is shooting 49.9 percent from the field, one of the best and most prolonged stretches of shot-making in his future Hall of Fame career.
Westbrook has averaged 15.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in that time, as well, and the Clippers have outscored their opponents by 80 points in the 835 minutes Westbrook has played while they’ve been outscored by 11 points when he’s sat.
Even when adjusting for the stars being on and off the floor, Westbrook has been a measuring stick for how the Clippers generally do.
With Westbrook on the floor and both George and Leonard off, the Clippers are still only minus-12 in 126 minutes. That’s a workable number that isn’t at all detrimental to the progress of the team. The stars and Westbrook together are plus-95 in 373 minutes, for what it’s worth. And, of course, if you’re wondering about the stars on the floor together while Westbrook sits, George and Leonard have only been plus-2 in their 90 minutes together since Westbrook’s arrival.
The underlying issue with those three, however, is that during their 16 games together, the Clippers have only gone 8-8. While playing .500-ball isn’t inherently awful, it’s far below the expected standard that George, Leonard, Clippers coach Tyronn Lue, and the Clippers have established during their time together.
This isn’t to pin it squarely on Westbrook, either. As mentioned, he’s been more than a positive addition to the team both on the floor, as highlighted above, and off the floor where he’s frequently heralded as their vocal leader and energy supplier.
The Clippers have “let Russ be Russ” and the results, at least as far as he’s concerned, have been fantastic. For the team, it’s been a bit of a wash. Nothing gained, nothing lost.
It was part of the reason the front office went out and nabbed Harden.
The other reason was that adding a legitimate star-level player for what, fair or foul, was deemed as role-players and picks proved too hard of a deal for the Clippers to ultimately pass on if their primary goal, as they’ve stated all along, is to win a championship.
↳THE HARSH REALITY↰
While externally they convey a four-star ethos — giving equal footing to George, Harden, Leonard, and Westbrook — that’s not the reality.
Right or wrong, it’s three stars they moved heaven and earth and six players and six first-round picks and four first-round pick swaps and (so far) $422.1 million for, and then Westbrook.
The complicated issue in this is that, inherently, salary shouldn’t determine status — not when your level of play on a basketball court is what should be the driving factor in not just playing time, but rather the benefit of role expansion and opportunities to do more in your minutes.
Make no mistake: George and Leonard are not getting relegated to bench duty no matter what they do on the court for any prolonged stretches. Nor should they. Those two are the linchpins and the main reasons why this roster has been constructed the way it has during their time with the franchise.
Neither is Ivica Zubac who, after Mason Plumlee’s unfortunate injury Monday night, is now the lone healthy player on a guaranteed contract that’s listed taller than 6-foot-8. While Tyronn Lue will play small at times to try to flip the script of a game, he won’t do it from the opening tip. At least not in the regular season.
That leaves the debate down to Harden and Westbrook. And the deciding factor, beyond just stylistic fit, could come down to money.
You don’t acquire a player making $35.7 million just to park them on the bench, even if in the first game everyone was together that was the player who got an extended run with all-bench units and scored 15 of his 17 points when he was the lone star running the show.
When it comes down to it, the $32 million gulf in salary is going to be a hefty bridge to cross when discussing lineup options.
Combined with what the Clippers had to relinquish from a personnel standpoint to bring Harden aboard — they gutted their entire forward depth by sending out Marcus Morris Sr., Kenyon Martin Jr., Nicolas Batum, and Robert Covington — it stands to reason that Harden is not at all viewed as a bench player, nor should he be.
While Clippers coach Tyronn Lue can certainly stagger the four stars in a way to possibly keep two on the floor at all times, Monday night was an indication that he and the team are still trying to figure out ways to keep everyone satisfied.
After an initial stretch of 6 minutes and 43 seconds to open the game, it was Harden who got subbed out first to allow George, Leonard, and Westbrook to all share time together while Harden got to rest before ultimately returning to spell Westbrook three minutes later.
Harden then got extended runs in bench lineups as he was featured alongside Bones Hyland, Norman Powell, PJ Tucker, and Mason Plumlee. Following Plumlee’s injury, third-year center Moussa Diabate was thrust into action in that lineup. Starting center Ivica Zubac also got time with that group.
In all, Harden spent 8 minutes and 34 seconds as the lone star on the floor, flanked by some composition of Hyland, Powell, Tucker, and a center. The Clippers were outscored by five points, registering 18 points on 17 possessions — Harden scored 15 of the team’s 18 points during that time while the others combined to shoot 1-for-6.
For their part, the trio of George, Leonard, and Westbrook spent 10 minutes and 13 seconds together without Harden. Yet, that trio which had been so good to start the season — they’d outscored opponents by 86 points in 114 minutes going into Monday’s game — only managed to outscore the Knicks by two points in that time. It wasn’t as definitive a margin as they or the team would have liked.
It could have been an off-night.
After all, that trio’s worst game of the season came in that humbling defeat to the Utah Jazz a couple of nights into the season as they managed to only outscore the Jazz by one single point over 26 minutes and 33 seconds.
In short: bad nights for the trio — or even not posting a double-digit scoring margin — might just spell doom for the Clippers regardless of opponent.
So, why have Westbrook be the odd one out? Well …
↳CLIPPERS NEED THEIR MANN↰
As mentioned here way back in May — and also way up top if you made it this far — the idea that the Clippers needed to entertain heading into the season was injecting Terance Mann into the starting lineup.
That was the plan all offseason for the Clippers and the team did announce Mann as a starter on the Friday before opening night. That promise was quickly wiped away after Mann suffered a left ankle injury during one of the team’s final practice sessions ahead of the season opener resulting in him having to be ruled out.
Mann was originally using a walking boot to get around following the injury, but in the last week or so he’s been moving without the aid of one as he began to ramp up towards a return. That return is coming soon as the team announced that Mann was questionable ahead of Wednesday’s game in Brooklyn.
As I wrote in May about why moving Mann into the starting lineup makes sense:
That’s not to say that the two stars should be moved into more of a decoy role next season, but rather to accentuate the talent and impact of those around them, they need to be on the floor with players like Mann who can thrive on the margins as a ball-handler, floor spacer, and cutter.
In their five years together — really four due to Leonard missing all of 2021-22 as he recovered from a tear of his right anterior cruciate ligament — the trio of George, Leonard, and Mann have outscored opponents by 121 points in their 443 minutes on the floor while amassing a 79-39 (.669) record across 118 regular season and postseason games.
They’ve worked well together alongside a center:
plus-67 in 297 minutes
They’ve worked well together without a center:
plus-54 in 146 minutes
They’ve worked well together next to a lead guard:
plus-37 in 74 minutes
They’ve worked well together without a lead guard:
plus-84 in 369 minutes
In short, this trio rips.
The reason it works so well is quite simple: Mann isn’t a possession eater.
In a lot of ways, he represents the perfect archetype that you’d want in a star-heavy system that features multiple top-level cooks but not one notable saucier.
Mann drizzles in his own concoction of rim pressure, floor spacing, screening, passing, and ball security without taking away from the overall greatness of the stars around him. He accentuates the collective.
To the ball security point, Mann has racked up 550 assists in his first four years in the league compared to 222 turnovers. While he’s not being tasked with repeatedly making inch-perfect pick-and-roll reads through the lane as defenders sit and wait, he’s also not committing clumsy turnovers that end possessions — Mann’s never had a game with five turnovers in his career, and only has four games with more turnovers than assists when playing at least 30 minutes.
Mann provides a legitimate shooting threat as evidenced by his connecting on 38.9 percent of his three-pointers last season on 2.4 attempts per game. For his career, Mann has sank 38.3 percent of his 517 long-range attempts.
Then there’s the shot-making around the rim.
Last season, Mann converted a staggering 72.2 percent of his shots inside the restricted area, of which 45 percent of his 153 makes were unassisted. That came one season after Mann made 66.4 percent of his restricted area attempts and had 42 percent of his makes come as unassisted baskets.
If you go back through his career, the versatile Mann has made 68.9 percent of his 657 field goal attempts that have come at the rim. Considering he’s listed at 6-foot-5, that level of finishing ability is quite remarkable and should not be taken lightly alongside stars who can open up space for others to attack.
Back during training camp in Hawai’i, Mann referred to himself as “one of the best” players in the league when it comes to operating as the short-roller when the Clippers navigate their vaunted small-small pick-and-roll sets that coach Lue loves to dial up time and time again.
“I feel like I’m really good in the small-small pick-and-roll,” Mann said. “I feel like I’m one of the best at it, actually. One of the best at cutting. So, not just spacing the floor and shooting but adding all of that other stuff, too.”
It’s hard to argue against him from a structural and gameplay standpoint.
Mann unlocks another labyrinth within the offense, a fun-filled plethora of twists and turns that opposing defenses have to contend with on the fly while accounting for the Clippers’ moving parts.
Despite them ranking second in half-court efficiency through their first six games, the Clippers have to feel like their turnover woes — they sit 28th in the league ahead of only Utah and Detroit, a pair of 2-6 teams — are a major black eye on their 3-3 start.
Between the miscues and the offensive rebounds that they’ve surrendered to the opposition, the Clippers need to do everything they can to limit their wasteful ways. Mann alleviates part of that.
Mann’s willing to throw himself into the mix for rebounds and help ignite a break that the Clippers are so desperately trying to establish but have managed to sluggishly rank 29th in transition efficiency up to this early point in the season. The 27-year-old is also arguably their most athletic player on the roster now that Kenyon Martin Jr. was shipped off to Philadelphia to facilitate the Harden trade.
The other notable thing with Mann is that he fits the same archetypal role as his childhood friend Bruce Brown had on the Brooklyn Nets when Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving all so famously banded together.
That superstar trio only managed to play 16 games together, going 13-3 and outscoring opponents by 113 points in the 365 minutes that they were able to enjoy each other’s company before a myriad of factors broke them apart.
But Brown, before signing with the Denver Nuggets last offseason and helping them win their first-ever championship, was on that Brooklyn team during those seasons. Brown operated in a lot of the same capacity as Mann does — a 6-foot-5 positionless anomaly that can space the floor, pass, defend, finish at the rim, and rebound.
It at least should pique your interest from that standpoint.
Even beyond the offensive fit, Mann’s ability to guard at the point of attack against ball-handlers, defend up against fours and even fives in some settings, and his overall versatility on that end of the floor makes him a wholly unique player on a Clippers roster that is now devoid of functional multi-purpose defensive forwards.
Last season, according to Basketball Index, Mann ranked in the 88th percentile in defensive role versatility and the 92nd percentile in matchup difficulty.
Mann’s matchup difficulty ranking was the highest among players on the Clippers last season, essentially meaning he took on the toughest task more often than others. Mann spent roughly 61 percent of his time last season defending guards, but did see 11 percent of his assignments come against centers and 28 percent against forwards, per Basketball Index.
Westbrook can do some of what Mann does. For instance, Westbrook is a great rebounder for his size — you don’t average 7.3 rebounds per game as a guard over a 16-year career without being excellent at it — and can kickstart a fast break with the best of them. Considering his lengthy track record in each department, one could surmise that Westbrook, not Mann, would fit in just fine.
And to Westbrook’s credit, the guard has been a lot more open to setting good, hard screens off the ball to free up shooters.
But, just like Mann can’t do everything that Westbrook can, Westbrook can’t do everything Mann can. It’s all about fit, not feature.
It’s just that the best possible way to utilize Westbrook after the addition of Harden and the return of Mann could likely be to return Westbrook to the same place he fell out of favor with the Lakers: the bench.
↳AN OLD FAMILIAR STING↰
The untimely injury to backup center Mason Plumlee is going to necessitate that the Clippers will likely have to play some form of small-ball in the minutes when starting center Ivica Zubac has to sit.
That opens the door for an intriguing possibility: Westbrook in a five-out bench lineup.
Last season, Westbrook saw 85 minutes for the Clippers when the team didn’t have a center on the floor. The Clippers outscored opponents by 10 points. There is a caveat there, though: Only three of those minutes came without both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard on the floor, and the team got outscored by eight points — not a real sample size to glean anything from.
But what is noticeable is that Westbrook hasn’t spent time in five-out units without George and/or Leonard out there alongside him. This could be his chance, or at least an opportunity to stabilize a second unit that will feature Bones Hyland, Norman Powell, and PJ Tucker, who will either feature as the backup four or, as is suspected to be tested thoroughly, as the backup five.
Flanking Westbrook with Hyland and Powell could provide the necessary spacing that possibly allows Westbrook to venture to the rim more than he is at the moment.
So far this season, 39 percent of Westbrook’s shot attempts have come at the rim. That’s down from 41 percent during his stint with the Clippers to end last season, which was also down from the 44 percent he was at with the Lakers before the trade. For reference: 48 percent of Westbrook’s field goal attempts came at the rim with the Lakers in 2021-22, so this is a slow, steady decrease.
However, while Westbrook is converting 59 percent of his rim attempts this season, it’s slightly down from the 61 percent he was at with the Clippers last season and more in line with the 58 percent he was converting with the Lakers during his year-and-a-half. The sample size, especially in this season, is still incredibly small. One make or one miss shifts the framework by roughly four percent in either direction.
For the Clippers and Westbrook to embrace a partnership that sees him come off the bench and supply the team with 25-28 minutes will require a level of buy-in that Westbrook has, at least for now, seemed completely on board with based on his relationship with Lue, George, and Leonard, as well as his penchant for being a willing screener and reducing the amount of early shot-clock off-the-dribble jumpers — Westbrook has taken seven within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock or the first four seconds of a reset shot clock, making two.
The issue with moving Westbrook to the bench is the possibility of “losing” him. It’s what went wrong with the Lakers early on last season.
Westbrook was moved to the bench after just three games, all losses. But the Lakers were also an evident wreck at that point, already bringing over their baggage from the prior season into the new one, and that’s a hard thing to overcome for players while they had to learn a brand new coaching staff.
Westbrook, who turns 35 on Sunday, was unfairly scapegoated for a disjointed roster construction that was overseen by Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka. To Pelinka’s credit, the executive remedied the roster situation near last February’s trade deadline and revamped the Lakers into a squad that was able to make a run to the Western Conference finals.
But Westbrook’s basketballing image was perceived to have been tarnished in the process as he was shipped off to Utah and eventually bought out. That is until he was able to land a place on the Clippers, immediately jumping into the starting lineup after his arrival.
With Westbrook and the Clippers there was seemingly no animosity after how last season ended; nor should there have been. The Clippers supplied Westbrook with a lifeline, and vice versa. Both sides were beyond happy and thrilled to continue the partnership. They’re not starting from a place three steps back but rather on equal footing. That could lend itself to making this adjustment work.
While some will wonder why the Clippers would dare trot out three-guard bench lineups after seeing how some of the past iterations have fared — famously, or perhaps ignominiously, the John Wall, Luke Kennard, and Norman Powell three-guard bench lineup just last season was a disastrous minus-30 in 99 minutes together — it might be the best pathway forward for this current team.
Allowing Hyland and Powell to both space the floor as shooters and also act as second-side creators that can attack seams and closeouts off of Westbrook’s driving-and-dishing could theoretically yield healthy results.
The wild card is Tucker.
The 38-year-old has taken three shots in his 32 minutes so far, missing each one. And that’s the problem. The Clippers need Tucker to be a willing shooter when opportunities are presented to him. He can’t pass up wide-open looks. Not on a bench unit where he could conceivably be matched up against opposing centers.
That unit, anchored by Westbrook’s motor, could find success in transition as well as in the half-court as long as the buy-in is there. There’s no reason that level of investment shouldn’t be present.
It would allow the Clippers to play a much more methodical style of basketball with a starting lineup of Harden, George, Leonard, Mann, and Zubac that suits the likes of George and Leonard who have primarily operated at some of the slowest paces in the league in their time together before allowing a mostly bench unit to come in late in the first quarter and having them release the parking brake.
↳IT’S NOT AN END, JUST A REIMAGINING↰
One can understand how this all might feel like an indictment on Russell Westbrook and his present ability as a basketball player, but it’s not. The good of the team should take precedence over the needs of a player presently on a minimum contract, even if said player is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Moving Westbrook to the bench also doesn’t stunt his impact. It just reshapes it.
Westbrook is currently averaging 33.3 minutes per game. Even filtering out the overtime game against the Lakers in which Westbrook logged a team-high 44 minutes, Westbrook would still be at 31.3 per contest. That’s too untenable of a mark. There is a point of diminishing returns, and playing Westbrook near 30 minutes is toeing that line.
There’s still an area for Westbrook to make a big impact with the Clippers, and while it would be in a bench role that most would likely scoff at, the guard did average 16.2 points, 7.7 assists, and 6.1 rebounds in 28.7 minutes per game off the bench for a Lakers team that was a net-neutral with him on the floor compared to off.
Allowing Harden more possessions on the ball and limiting the number of times opposing defenders can sag off of Westbrook when he’s off the ball would be greatly beneficial for all concerned parties. It moves Westbrook to a lineup that lines up more to his speed with the potential for five-out spacing and still gets him minutes with the other stars during substitution patterns.
In a year where everyone is seemingly on expiring contracts — George and Leonard are extension eligible but have player options for next season; Harden is set to be an unrestricted free agent; Westbrook has a player option for next season; and Lue has one year remaining on his contract but no contract extension coming anytime soon — it’s setting up for the perfect storm of attempting everything to see what sticks.
Westbrook anchoring the bench unit seems to be where this will ultimately be headed once roster clarity and health sort itself out.
And, speaking of health, considering Westbrook has the healthiest track record of the quartet, it’s likely that Westbrook’s spell on the bench wouldn’t last long regardless as the likelihood of him having to fill in for someone would appear to be a distinct possibility considering past injury luck.
In the meantime, getting everyone to see eye-to-eye on what the best course of action will be is up to coach Tyronn Lue.
As Lue so astutely put just a week ago: “It’s going to take a lot of sacrifice, whether it’s shots, whether it’s minutes. They’re willing to do that. And so we’ve talked about all the right things, and now it’s my job just to make sure I put the pieces in the right spot to make sure we’re successful.”