Once Upon a Dame Time in Los Angeles?
With Damian Lillard seemingly on the outs in Portland, can the Clippers get in on the sweepstakes?
The LA Clippers are already watching one superstar-level player ask for a trade from their present team. James Harden is reportedly putting pressure on the Philadelphia 76ers to send him to his hometown of Los Angeles. Whether or not the 76ers and Clippers can agree to a trade remains in the air as the waft of all that trade smoke becomes thicker by the day.
But let’s turn our bored gazes toward the other star to recently ask out of his current situation: Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers.
The seven-time All-Star finished his 11th NBA season by averaging a career-high 32.2 points on a career-high tying 46.3 percent shooting. Lillard also averaged 7.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and shot 37.1 percent on a career-high 11.3 three-point attempts per game.
But between calf and ankle injuries, as well as the Blazers sitting Lillard down the stretch of the season as they looked to maximize their lottery odds, Lillard only played in 58 games. That came one season after playing in just 29 due to abdominal surgery. Put into different terms: Lillard has played as many games over the last two seasons as Paul George, a player with legitimate injury questions surrounding him.
Lillard, 33, has requested that Portland deal him, and he’s named the Miami Heat as the No. 1 team on his trade list.1 Those talks have, like the Clippers-76ers ones, appeared to stall. As a result, there might not be a quick and easy solution for either party here. The Blazers value Lillard highly, as they should, and the Heat don’t want to give up all their prime trade chips for him, as they also should. That’s how trades work.
If you’re wondering how this relates to the Clippers, well L.A. was listed as one of the teams that had recent discussions with the Blazers about acquiring Lillard, and while, yes, it was just rumored dialogue, why not talk about the Clippers and how realistic it is that they get into the Lillard sweepstakes? And why not talk about the on-court fit? It could be fun.
First things first: Damian Lillard is slated to make $45.6 million this upcoming season — $45,640,084 to be exact. Lillard also will make $107.3 million over the following two seasons and then has a $63.2 million player option for 2026-27, when he’ll be 36 years old. If you’re keeping track, that’s four years and $216.2 million still owed to Lillard, or it could be three years and $153 million if he declines the player option. Let’s assume he picks it up if only for the simple reason that it’s SIXTY-THREE MILLION DOLLARS.2
Trying to bridge the gap on salary in trades when the incoming salary is creeping close to $50 million isn’t easy, and it’s made tougher considering the Clippers are, at the present moment, over the NBA’s second-apron which binds them to bring in no more than 110 percent of outgoing salary — i.e. if they send out $100 million, they can’t take back more than $110 million. But that’ll change after this coming regular season when teams above the second-apron are restricted to 100 percent matching in trades starting one day after the end of the 2023-24 regular season, meaning that for every dollar you send out, you can only take one dollar (and no more) in. You also won’t be able to aggregate salaries in trades anymore if you’re over the second apron starting that first day after the end of the upcoming regular season.3
In essence: the Clippers have to be within 90 percent of Lillard’s contract — and Harden’s, for that matter — in any trade scenario this offseason. Lillard makes $45.6 million. As long as the Clippers get within 90 percent of that in outgoing salary (approximately $41.1 million), it is possible to formulate a trade scenario.
We’re not going to speculate on the players who could be sent out by the Clippers in this hypothetical scenario. Instead, we’ll just say that the math is possible based on several combinations of salaries. The real question is whether or not the Blazers would want any or all of the players that the Clippers could conceivably offer, as well as draft picks. After all, the Clippers can outright trade their 2028 and 2030 first-round picks as well as throw in pick swaps for their 2027 and 2029 firsts. There’s no way of knowing whether or not that entices Portland.
Those draft picks could be hugely valuable. You have to consider the fact that by the time 2028 rolls around, the year in which the first outright pick would go to Portland rather than it being the byproduct of a pick swap, the trio of Damian Lillard, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard would be 38, 38, and 37, respectively. Considering 2030 would be two years after that, we’re talking about those three players being retired and the Clippers having no way to replenish their ranks. Is that seen as valuable to Portland in trade talks? We have no way of knowing.
On the court, though, there seem to be almost no hiccups as it pertains to style of play.
Lillard can fit seamlessly alongside both George and Leonard either as a lead ball-handler or a spot-up threat while the others take control of the action. Lillard’s ability to be completely malleable with this group of players is a fantastic advantage that should make the Clippers seriously consider offering everything they can to get him, as his fit profiles to be a lot smoother than James Harden’s potentially would be.
According to CourtOptix, Lillard was double-teamed 26.4 percent of the time last season and 15.3 times per game overall.4 Lillard also attempted 80 three-pointers that came from at least 30 feet, according to CourtOptix, and made 35 percent of those tries.5 Those 80 attempts were the second-most in the league, trailing only Atlanta’s Trae Young.
That ability to stretch and expand the floor by both inviting pressure and by being able to shoot over the top of it would add a completely different dynamic to the Clippers’ offense.
Lillard is also incredibly adept in pick-and-rolls, where he averaged 1.13 points per possession as a ball-handler in such settings this season, the top mark among all players with at least 500 such possessions, according to Synergy.6 Lillard also ranked tied for second behind only Stephen Curry in points per possession on handoffs among all players to register at least 100 possessions, averaging 1.15, per Synergy.7
Adding onto Lillard’s overall offensive profile this season, he ranked third amongst all players that registered at least 100 possessions coming off of screens. Lillard averaged 1.12 points per possessions, as tracked by Synergy.8 Lillard also led the league in points per possession in isolation settings among players with at least 200 possessions, averaging 1.17, according to Synergy.9
The veteran guard isn’t just all about scoring, though. Lillard can pass, and he can pass at a very high level.
Lillard graded out as an ‘A+’ in the playmaking department, according to Basketball Index. You can see why just by going off of the above chart.
What makes Lillard truly fantastic as a playmaker is that he’s able to leverage his elite shooting ability into drawing tighter coverages which allows him to get downhill easier and make plays in the middle of the floor as a result. It bends defenses and stretches them to their breaking point, a hallmark of a truly gamebreaking passer.
This is just one example of how Lillard maximizes both his long-range shooting ability and his penchant for getting downhill to the rim in order to generate a highly-efficient shot for a teammate. Because he’s so good shooting off the dribble, Derrick White has to aggressively push Lillard down into the paint which draws two help defenders — one being Al Horford in drop coverage and the other being Jayson Tatum digging down off the strongside corner. It’s just another way Lillard impacts the game.
Lillard shot 63.3 percent inside the restricted area this past season. While it was a career-high mark, Lillard has spent much of his career hovering around the high 50s when it comes to his success around the rim. A lot of his prosperity there comes down to just how good of a player he is when getting downhill due to his ability to contort, craftiness, and even power as he rises for dunks.
Last season, Lillard averaged 16.1 drives per game, according to Second Spectrum. That ranked ninth in the NBA.10 Lillard shot 57.7 percent on those drives, a mark that ranked in the top ten of all players to attempt at least 500 drives last season as tracked by Second Spectrum.11 It put Lillard between Jaylen Brown and Stephen Curry.
This is just a very long-winded way of saying, ‘Duh, of course Dame would fit.’ It’s all pretty self-explanatory but outlining the things he’s good at helps. The defensive side of the ball would bring about other questions. However, that’s neither here nor there since you’re not potentially acquiring Lillard to give you a boost on the defensive end of the floor, but rather to uplift your offensive ceiling.
To that point, the Blazers were 12.8 points per 100 possessions better with Lillard on the floor as opposed to off, according to NBA Stats.12 That shouldn’t shock anyone. Their offense alone was 13.6 points per 100 possessions better with Lillard orchastrating things rather than sitting on the bench either resting or in street clothes. In other words: difference maker.
Whether or not the Clippers have enough to entice the Blazers to eschew sending Lillard to his reported preferred destination is obviously anyone’s guess, but from a pure on-court fit, he more than checks the boxes. Better than Harden, in fact. If the Clippers are going to be pressured into giving up the farm for Harden, a better pivot would be to place a call about Lillard and then work from there.
What a weird offseason this has been for everyone. It’s slowly jumping the shark.
Let’s face it, the Miami Heat are the only team on Lillard’s trade list.
I understand the rising cap numbers and all that, but it still breaks my brain to see someone will be paid $63 million for a single season. That doesn’t mean they don’t deserve it. It’s just such a mind-boggling number. It’s like seeing a thermometer say anything north of 110 degrees. It reshapes how you process life.
Yes, this can be very confusing. No, the NBA couldn’t make life easier for you and streamline this process in an easy-to-understand manner. That would have been too nice of them.
Reference: NBA CourtOptix | Double Teams
Reference: NBA CourtOptix | Deep Threes
Reference: NBA Stats | Synergy Hand Off
Reference: NBA Stats | Synergy Off Screen
Reference: NBA Stats | Synergy Isolation
Reference: NBA Stats | Second Spectrum Drives
Reference: NBA Stats | Second Spectrum Drives FG%
Reference: NBA Stats | Team ON/OFF