Free Agency Primer: The Case Against Russell Westbrook

Why the Clippers shouldn't bring the future Hall of Famer back.

It should be noted immediately that this is the first of a four-part series about the LA Clippers’ free agents this offseason.

The second part, which will be released tomorrow, will examine the case for retaining Russell Westbrook as a member of the Clippers. The third and fourth parts will follow the same format for center Mason Plumlee.

With that said, as you can see by the title, our first part of the series is centered around why opting to let Westbrook walk in free agency could be a good play by the Clippers.

This isn’t to say that Westbrook wasn’t beneficial to the Clippers during his brief time.

After arriving via the buyout market after the NBA's trade deadline, Westbrook averaged 15.8 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.9 rebounds in 30.2 minutes per game. The future Hall of Famer did that throughout 21 contests. He started all of them. Westbrook shot 48.9 percent from the field and 35.6 percent on 3.5 three-point attempts per game.

Westbrook, who turned in a valiant effort in the postseason after the team lost Kawhi Leonard to injury before Game 3 while also already being without Paul George, averaged 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists during the Clippers' five-game first-round series defeat to the Phoenix Suns. Westbrook shot 41 percent for the series.

While that’s all well and good, there were downsides to Westbrook’s role and share of possessions.

Before Westbrook came aboard, the Clippers had rolled with Terance Mann as the de facto starting point guard for the previous 20 games — a stretch that started on Jan. 8 and ended on Feb. 16. The Clippers went 12-8 during that time, outscoring opponents by 61 points, including back-to-back wins over the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns to finish out that stretch.

After acquiring Westbrook, the Clippers went 11-10 with a plus-22 point differential. They were 5-5 with a plus-5 point differential in the 10 games that Westbrook got to play with both George and Leonard.

Statistical comparison before and after Westbrook’s arrival.

The Clippers had started to see Mann start to play better, as well, during that stretch of games before Westbrook came to town. In those 20 games that Mann started as the point guard, Mann averaged 11.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 53 percent from the field and 45.5 percent on 3.3 three-point attempts per game. That comes out to a cool 64.3 True Shooting Percentage.

Mann played just 21.9 minutes per game after Westbrook’s arrival. He had been averaging 28.8 minutes in the 20 games before that. Mann averaged 20.7 minutes in the 10 games that Westbrook, George, and Leonard all played together.

To maximize Mann’s value, it might be beneficial for the Clippers if Westbrook doesn’t return. The biggest beneficiary would be Mann, and Mann’s continued development as he gets set to enter his Age-27 season should be prioritized. Especially with Mann set to begin the first year of a two-year extension.

Westbrook impacts things beyond just Mann, though. His presence takes the ball out of the hands of more efficient scoring options such as Norman Powell, Eric Gordon, and of course Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. That also assumes that those players are back next season.

Folks can gripe with the Eric Gordon trade, but the production was there for the veteran guard. Gordon averaged 11 points and 2.1 assists while also making 46.3 percent of his shots from the field and 42.3 percent of his 5.0 three-point attempts per game. Those are more than respectable marks for a guard that will be asked, should he return, to fit in around the two stars, George and Leonard.

In Powell's case, after getting off to a rough start, the combo guard had a good year by averaging 17 points on 47.9 percent shooting overall and 39.7 percent on 4.8 three-point attempts per game. Powell added rim pressure, and his unique ability to get a bucket at a moment's notice benefited the Clippers greatly.

Those two, as well as Mann, should take precedence for the Clippers over any Westbrook return.

Westbrook is someone the team has to gameplan around. His lack of spacing and rickety jumper has its downsides. While, yes, Westbrook did shoot 35.6 percent on three-pointers this past season with the Clippers, that was heavily buoyed by a game against the Memphis Grizzlies where he went 5-for-5. In the other 20 games for L.A., Westbrook was 21-for-68 from long-range (30.9 percent). That’s more in line with his career 30.5 percent mark.

The Clippers attempted to make use of Westbrook as a screener at times, and it did have its uses in some settings. But asking Westbrook to continue to do that just isn’t feasible.

Clippers’ 2022-23 stats with and without Westbrook alongside both stars.

The sample size here is pretty small, especially with Westbrook on the floor alongside the two stars. It wasn’t a terrible fit, as evidenced by the plus-4.0 Net Rating, but it was nowhere near as good as when the two stars played throughout the season without Westbrook.

With Mann on the floor alongside both George and Leonard but without Westbrook, the Clippers had a plus-7.1 Net Rating across 312 minutes, according to PBP Stats. That’s a solid number. It’s not a world-beating number, but it is a good one.

In general, the impact of George and Leonard together was down from past seasons, but it was still great without Westbrook on the floor. The pathway forward alongside the two stars has always been, and will always be, to surround them with worthwhile shooters and/or slashers who can cut at the right time off the ball when either star inevitably gets double-teamed.

Unfortunately, that player is not Westbrook.

During his Clippers’ stint, Westbrook totaled just 12 possessions as a cutter, per Synergy. While his spot-up possession share did increase from 16.3 percent to 22 percent with the Clippers, Westbrook still averaged just 0.9 points per possession as a spot-up shooter, according to Synergy.

Westbrook’s archetype isn’t someone who the stars need playing alongside them. They need someone like a Terance Mann, who can cut and spot-up, and even operate as a roller in pick-and-roll situations.

This isn’t to say that Westbrook didn’t bring valuable commodities to the Clippers in 2022-23. He did. Westbrook was available, played hard, got downhill, and was a fan-favorite during his brief spell.

But the team doesn’t need that if the stars are on the floor. They need someone who can fit in around them, not someone who needs the ball to make their value felt.

(Part 2 of this four-part series will be out on Tuesday, outlining the case for the Clippers to bring Westbrook back.)