Examining a Potential PJ Tucker Fit on the Clippers
Should the Clippers acquire James Harden, there's the possibility PJ Tucker comes along with him. So, how does Tucker fit?
It feels like the James Harden trade rumors started ages ago. Still, as the unhurried train makes its way toward the station this offseason, another name has come up recently between the LA Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers. That name is none other than PJ Tucker.
According to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, the veteran forward might be finding his way to Los Angeles alongside his good friend (emphasis mine):
PJ Tucker, Harden’s longtime teammate with the Rockets and Sixers, has come up in trade discussions between the 76ers and Clippers, league sources told HoopsHype. The Clippers covet Tucker’s ability to guard multiple positions and defend the league’s top opposing scorers. Tucker is owed $11 million this upcoming year and has a $11.54 million player option for the 2024-25 season.
As Scotto mentions, the Clippers apparently “covet Tucker’s ability to guard multiple positions and defend the league’s top opposing scorers.”
That’s not hyperbole. Tucker does guard multiple positions and does guard the league’s top opposing scorers. Those truths are borne out when looking at data and metrics from Basketball Index.
Last season, Tucker graded out 11th in Matchup Difficulty in the entire league behind an assortment of names that you would expect. In order, those names were: Quentin Grimes, Herbert Jones, Dillon Brooks, Jaden McDaniels, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Jrue Holiday, Dorian Finney-Smith, De’Anthony Melton, and OG Anunoby.
However, what made Tucker wholly unique is not just that he guarded top opposing offensive players, but rather he also took on the assignments in the post, as well.
There were only two non-centers, according to Basketball Index, who achieved at least an A-or-better grade in both Post Defense and Matchup Difficulty last season. Those two players were Ben Simmons and PJ Tucker. In the case of Tucker, he played 800 more minutes than Simmons did, which probably makes his case a little more ironclad.
We know that Tucker can defend, though, so none of this should be that shocking. It’s everything else we have to take into consideration.
Tucker, 38, averaged 3.5 points and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 42.7 percent from the field and 39.3 percent on 1.9 three-point attempts per game this past season. Tucker started and played in 75 of Philadelphia's 82 regular season games, averaging 25.6 minutes. In the postseason, Tucker averaged 4.9 points and 4.5 rebounds on 37.3 percent shooting overall and 35.0 percent on 3.6 three-point attempts per game across 11 contests.
Let's not mince words here: Tucker is a non-threat on the offensive end of the floor. Sure, he conceivably is seen as a floor spacer since he's a career 36.6 percent three-point shooter, but he's never been a high-volume option on that end outside of a three-year stint towards the end of his Houston tenure.
To that point, Tucker is such a non-threat that his 6.5 percent Usage Rate this past season ranks as the second-lowest in NBA history among players to log at least 1900 minutes during a season, according to Stathead.
Tucker had more games this past season where he went scoreless (22) than games where he scored more than five points (16). In fact, Tucker had six games as a starter this past season where he logged at least 15 minutes and didn’t attempt a single shot or free throw. It meant that Tucker was the first player since Jason Collins in 2007-08 to have at least six different games where he started, played at least 15 minutes, and didn’t attempt a single field goal or free throw.
So, with that said, how does he compare to the other fours-that-can-masquerade-as-small-ball-fives presently on the Clippers roster?
First off, as we can see by the chart above, Tucker is nowhere near the offensive influence that any of those three other forwards are. That shouldn’t be too shocking.
For as much as Clippers fans griped about Marcus Morris Sr. over the past season, it should be mentioned that he’s still a far superior shooter and offensive weapon than Tucker is. Teams still had to respect Morris when he was on the floor, and that respect does matter when scheming ways to make pieces fit together. Same with Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum, even if Batum’s role is more of a Swiss Army Knife that plugs the gaps where needed.
Tucker’s ability to play both the four and the five would intrigue the Clippers, and you figure his spot-up shooting from the corners — where Tucker has lived in his NBA career — would benefit a team who loves to preach their ‘Drive. Kick. Swing.’ mantra.
It’s not so crazy to imagine a world where the Clippers can roll out a moderately intriguing lineup featuring Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and PJ Tucker at some point next season, should this trade eventually come to fruition. It’d be a lineup that can switch everything, something they love to do anyways, and would at least allow Westbrook to operate with more space than otherwise would be available to him.
It seems like forever ago, but the Houston Rockets did outscore opponents by 4.25 points per 100 possessions back in 2019-20 when they had Westbrook, Harden, and Tucker on the floor together without a traditional center, according to PBP Stats. Should be mentioned that that group got annihilated in the second round by the Los Angeles Lakers, to the tune of being outscored by 48 points in 107 minutes.
The question for the Clippers would come down to whether or not they feel they should take Tucker back in any deal that nets them Harden. If Philadelphia demands the Clippers take Tucker — who is owed $11 million this upcoming season and possesses an $11.5 million player option for 2024-25 — then the Clippers’ hardline stance should be to only accept Tucker in that deal if they’re able to keep other pieces out, whether that be players or picks.
However, there is a rather large cloud that hangs over Tucker’s inclusion in any deal alongside Harden, at least as far as these two teams are concerned.
James Harden has a 15 percent trade kicker in his contract, which means he’s due an additional $5,346,000 in this deal. That $5.346 million will be paid to him by the Philadelphia 76ers but also must be accounted for in outgoing salary by the LA Clippers. So, you have to add $5.346 million on top of Harden’s $35.64 million, which gives you a figure of $40.986 million. The Clippers have to get to 90 percent of that — $36,887,400. Harden could opt to waive his trade kicker, which would make things easier for both the 76ers (since they wouldn’t have to pay him) and the Clippers (since it’d require less salary to obtain him). For the sake of argument, we’ll operate under the assumption that Harden will not waive that trade kicker, though.
Adding Tucker’s $11 million into this brings it up to $52,000,500 total, meaning the Clippers, to get to 90 percent of that, would have to send out $46,800,450 in salary. It’s doable, but that’s a lot of outgoing moolah.
There is a trio of players — Norman Powell, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington — that combine to make $46,808,587 this upcoming season, which would see the Clippers clear the 90 percent threshold by a whopping $8,137. I’m not saying that is what the prospective deal would be, but just alluding to what salaries get them to that level. However, that also brings up the other side of the equation about whether or not Philadelphia would have interest in any of those players, or if the Clippers are looking to keep any of them out of this specific deal.
If Tucker, who as mentioned does have a player option for his Age 39 season, is to be included in this deal, then one would imagine the Clippers could broker their way into keeping some of their more choice assets — i.e. Terance Mann, Brandon Boston Jr., multiple first-round picks, etc.
It’s hard to say, at least at this juncture, what the 76ers are looking for and what the Clippers are willing to part with. But two things appear to be a very harsh reality:
James Harden wants to play for the LA Clippers.
The Philadelphia 76ers will look to attach PJ Tucker in a James Harden deal.
We’ll see who blinks first between the 76ers and the Clippers.
If PJ Tucker’s inclusion in any deal is a necessity, it’s anyone’s guess who relents first.