State of the Clippers: Through 40 Games
It's time to take stock of what's gone on as we hit this important juncture.
A long time ago in a basketball galaxy far, far away . . .
Hall of Fame coach Phil Jackson is rumored to have said that the true mark of any real contender is to notch 40 wins before you reach your 20th loss. But what about 40 games in general? Why not take a look at where championship teams stood at that benchmark?
For the LA Clippers, they’re hoping to raise the franchise’s first-ever championship banner as they get set to open their brand-new arena, the Intuit Dome, in roughly six months. So, where do they stand in the hopes of achieving that goal?
That’s what we’re here to find out.
And we need to look at past champions to get some idea of what footing the Clippers are currently standing on, so why not look at all of the NBA champions in the ‘Net Rating era’ — which spans since 1996-97, at least according to the NBA’s own official stat website since that’s as far back as that specific data will go.
The Clippers, sitting at 26-14, have a plus-5.5 Net Rating across their first 40 games.
Their record is identical to the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks, 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs, and 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. Only the 2005-06 Miami Heat had a worse record. Four of those five teams — save only the Bucks — had a worse Net Rating than the Clippers presently sport.
Last season’s Denver Nuggets — despite holding a better record than the Clippers, albeit by one game — had a lower Net Rating by roughly two points per 100 possessions. The 2018-19 Toronto Raptors, who also had Kawhi Leonard on the roster, had a worse Net Rating than this current Clippers squad while the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons were merely right in line with the Clippers.
The Clippers’ current Net Rating compares favorably to a few champions in the above table.
We’ve already touched on the 2003-04 Pistons, but the 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers, 2012-13 Miami Heat, and 1997-98 Chicago Bulls all come within reasonable touching distance of the Clippers’ plus-5.5 mark.
To that point, the lines from those Bulls and Pistons squads, respectively, might be where the Clippers presently rank in terms of profile. The Clippers’ expected win-loss record, which is commonly referred to as the Pythagorean Wins method, has them tabbed at 27-13 according to Basketball Reference, one game better than their actual record.
The 1997-98 Bulls and 2003-04 Pistons both had an expected record of 27-13 through 40 games. While the Clippers have underperformed by one game, so to speak, the Bulls overperformed by one game while the Pistons were right on their mark.
Now that we know that the Clippers, at least profile-wise, compare pretty favorably to not just one former title team but several, it might be time to see how they’ve done through various stints this season.
It should be mentioned that the Clippers did have a hiccup early on, and I’m not talking just about their record through the first 10 games.
We have to properly contextualize the James Harden trade that rocked the locker room and trickled down onto the floor as the team looked disjointed and unable to figure things out on the fly. That has since changed. But how much?
Through the team’s first 10 games, the Clippers were 3-7 despite sporting a plus-1.1 Net Rating, meaning their point differential had them more around a .500 team than their results would indicate.
In reality, that does track to some degree. Their wins came by 12, 40, and 16 points, respectively. However, three of their seven losses came by less than five points, a sign that they were losing games on the margins rather than being completely uncompetitive.
That all changed in their second 10-game stint as they went 7-3 and had a plus-5.7 Net Rating. Their losses were all within 10 points during that span, as well.
Their third 10-game stint saw them go 8-2. Their two losses were both in blowouts, but each one saw them missing forward Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers had a plus-5.3 Net Rating during this stint.
But this last 10-game stretch is easily their best of the season thus far. They have a plus-10.1 Net Rating and have gone 8-2 with two extremely close losses to the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s their best offensive rating during any stretch, as well.
Part of the reason the Clippers have seen a turnaround is that their turnovers have fallen quite dramatically since their initial 10 games to open the season. Not turning the ball over and giving teams extra possessions is a fantastic way to help your chances. More shots equals potentially more points — duh!
The Clippers are also scoring in the paint more, getting out and scoring a tad more in transition, and are doing it while their pace has dipped to the slowest it’s been this season.
But it should be noted that there is inevitably a ton of noise since these are individual 10-game sample sizes that we’re focusing on. One bad game or great game can do a lot of harm or help to these numbers.
Still, this all points to a team that is progressing as the season goes along, and that’s what you want to do. They’re shooting better, scoring better, taking more efficient shots, and not turning the ball over as much as they were earlier in the season. Now, if only they could get their defense back on track to what it was roughly 20 games ago.
The team’s three stars have generally been good together as the Clippers have outscored opponents by 124 points in the 630 minutes that James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard have spent on the floor as a unit.
Since the Nov. 17 lineup change that moved Terance Mann into the starting group, the Clippers have managed to outscore opponents by 164 points in 522 minutes, further solidifying the staying power of that bunch.
That’s what we’re going to look at now — the three stars and how they’ve done over four (somewhat) equal stints throughout the first 40 games.
As a note, you’re going to see Morey % and On/Off Net listed in the final two columns.
The Morey % column is named after Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey who somewhat brought the “rim-and-three” offensive ideal to the forefront over the last decade or so. The higher the number listed, the higher the percentage of that player’s shots have come at the rim or as 3s — the two most efficient areas on the floor.
When it comes to On/Off Net, that column deals with how many points per 100 possessions better or worse the team was with that specific player on the floor as opposed to off. Any number in the positive implies the team was better, any number in the negative implies the team was worse. (To explain: Boston’s Derrick White has a plus-10.2 On/Off Net which comes from the Celtics being 13.9 points per 100 possessions better than opponents with White on the floor and only 3.7 points per 100 better with him off the floor, thus we subtract 3.7 from 13.9 and get — you guessed it — plus-10.2.)
We’re going to start with forward Kawhi Leonard, not just because it’s Kawhi but also because he’s had the easiest split of games. Leonard has played in 36 contests, and dividing that into four equal parts is simple.
Leonard’s most productive stint came in the third section of nine games, where he averaged 29.3 points on a ridiculous 73.2 True Shooting Percentage. But a key highlight to this is that he also got to the rim and shot 3s — e.g. Morey Ball — at a slightly higher rate than during any other stint all season.
One thing remains clear: the Clippers are a lot better with Leonard on the floor compared to off, as evidenced by them being 17.4 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor as opposed to off in the first nine-game stint and 10.6 or better through the first three splits overall. Only recently has that tailed off, but that’s mostly due to Leonard spending more time with bench units to close out first and third quarters and it could, at times, lead to a struggle for both him and the team collectively.
Splitting up 38 games isn’t easy, but ultimately the decision was made to split them as units of nine, ten, nine, and then finally ten again to keep it uniform. Made the most sense.
When it comes down to it, Paul George has had a pretty underrated 38 games all things considered. George has ranged between a 60.5 True Shooting Percentage and 66.7 True Shooting Percentage in three of the four stints, with only the second split being the one that saw him drop off. But even that one featured him posting his highest rebound and assist numbers.
George has gotten to the rim a solid amount and shot plenty of 3s to boost his ‘Morey Ball’ rate to good marks for a true three-level scorer such as him. However, the staggering part has been the On/Off Net swing.
The versatile wing started the year as arguably the team’s most important player before settling into a good level thanks to spending time with bench units where he was the main scoring option. That has since swung back the other way ever since Leonard has taken over that role.
Truth be told, James Harden was the one who required a little bit of trickery, I guess, to figure out his splits. Harden’s played in 35 games and, as we all know, 35 isn’t divisible by four. So, it was decided to use his first eight-game stint and then go with nine games for each of the following three splits.
Harden didn’t get truly cooking as a scorer until his third split but then regressed to his worst scoring stretch since joining the Clippers. However, Harden has seen his two highest assist stints come in the final two splits we have here. That’s a positive sign. Even when Harden isn’t scoring at a prolific rate, he’s still finding ways to help the team offensively.
As usual, Harden is a good example of what the ‘Morey Ball’ ideal is, topping out at 80.9 percent during his third split and sitting at or above 77 percent for the final three splits. The only split where he didn’t perform to his usual levels in that department was the first one, which you could chalk up to getting acclimated to the team, his new surroundings, and some lineup choices.
Lastly, Harden has been an On/Off Net monster over those final three splits after being a severe detriment in the first one. But that could also be explained by the lineups he was put into. Harden has since played better, lineups with him have fared better, and learning, adjusting, and improving throughout the season is the name of the game.
All in all, the 2023-24 LA Clippers appear to have the makings of a potential championship-caliber squad.
They have an A1-level talent that has been to the mountaintop a couple of times in Kawhi Leonard, they feature a good second option in Paul George who has been a consistent performer throughout the season and also raised his game in the playoffs before, and their third option is a table-setter who isn’t going to be tasked to go above and beyond on most nights.
Tyronn Lue has won a championship as the head honcho, their profile is that of a team that seems right in line with a few title teams before them, and they do possess the requisite role-player pieces — thanks to Ivica Zubac, Terance Mann, Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook, Mason Plumlee, Amir Coffey, etc. — to at least aid the three stars when required.
Whether or not the Clippers win a title is obviously up in the air and remains to be seen, but through their first 40 games of this season, the data shows a team that is at least capable of making waves in a few months. But there’s a lot of time between now and then.
It’s a basketball galaxy that exists far, far away from where we presently sit.